Travis John Berge : Citation Profile

Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

9

H index

9

i10 index

400

Citations

RESEARCH PRODUCTION:

15

Articles

21

Papers

1

Chapters

RESEARCH ACTIVITY:

   16 years (2009 - 2025). See details.
   Cites by year: 25
   Journals where Travis John Berge has often published
   Relations with other researchers
   Recent citing documents: 47.    Total self citations: 16 (3.85 %)

MORE DETAILS IN:
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   Permalink: http://citec.repec.org/pbe546
   Updated: 2025-12-13    RAS profile: 2025-05-15    
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Relations with other researchers

Works with:

Pfajfar, Damjan (4)

De Ridder, Maarten (4)

Stella, Andrea (2)

Bauer, Michael (2)

Zhong, Molin (2)

Authors registered in RePEc who have co-authored more than one work in the last five years with Travis John Berge.

Is cited by:

Pierdzioch, Christian (15)

GUPTA, RANGAN (9)

Drehmann, Mathias (8)

Lahiri, Kajal (8)

Nyberg, Henri (7)

Fritsche, Ulrich (7)

Leiva-Leon, Danilo (7)

Pönkä, Harri (7)

Yu, Shu (6)

Wong, Benjamin (6)

Elgin, Ceyhun (6)

Cites to:

Watson, Mark (17)

Kose, Ayhan (13)

Stock, James (11)

Otrok, Christopher (11)

Hamilton, James (10)

Diebold, Francis (10)

Jorda, Oscar (9)

Orphanides, Athanasios (9)

Prasad, Eswar (9)

Taylor, Alan (9)

van Norden, Simon (9)

Main data

Where Travis John Berge has published?

Journals with more than one article published# docs
International Journal of Forecasting2
Economic Review2
Journal of Applied Econometrics2
FRBSF Economic Letter2

Working Papers Series with more than one paper published# docs
Finance and Economics Discussion Series / Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)7
Research Working Paper / Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City4
Working Paper Series / Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco2
Working Papers / University of California, Davis, Department of Economics2
FEDS Notes / Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)2

Recent works citing Travis John Berge (2025 and 2024)

YearTitle of citing document
2024El multiplicador fiscal en Argentina. Evaluando la relevancia del contexto macroeconómico.. (2024). Julin, Borgo. In: Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers. RePEc:aep:anales:4712.

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2024The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Bank Funding Stability. (2024). Grimm, Maximilian. In: ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series. RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:341.

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2024Real-time Prediction of the Great Recession and the Covid-19 Recession. (2024). Chung, Seulki. In: Papers. RePEc:arx:papers:2310.08536.

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2025Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts. (2023). Lehmann, Niklas Valentin. In: Papers. RePEc:arx:papers:2312.09081.

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2025Early and Accurate Recession Detection Using Classifiers on the Anticipation-Precision Frontier. (2025). Michaillat, Pascal. In: Papers. RePEc:arx:papers:2506.09664.

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2025Binary Response Forecasting under a Factor-Augmented Framework. (2025). Yang, Xuanbin ; Liu, Fei ; Cong, Jiachen ; Cheng, Tingting. In: Papers. RePEc:arx:papers:2507.16462.

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2024Forecasting Recessions in Canada: An Autoregressive Probit Model Approach. (2024). Tuzcuoglu, Kerem ; Poulin-Moore, Antoine. In: Staff Working Papers. RePEc:bca:bocawp:24-10.

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2025Assessing consumer CBDC adoption in Luxembourg: A micro-simulation approach. (2025). Giordana, Gastón. In: BCL working papers. RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp193.

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2024Calibrating the countercyclical capital buffer using AUROCs. (2024). Bologna, Pierluigi ; Galardo, Maddalena. In: Economic Notes. RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:53:y:2024:i:1:n:e12230.

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2024Forecasting Inflation with the New Keynesian Phillips Curve: Frequencies Matter. (2024). Verona, Fabio ; Martins, Manuel. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. RePEc:bla:obuest:v:86:y:2024:i:4:p:811-832.

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2024A New Approach to Forecasting the Probability of Recessions after the COVID‐19 Pandemic. (2024). Camacho, Maximo ; Ruiz, Manuel ; Ramallo, Salvador. In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. RePEc:bla:obuest:v:86:y:2024:i:4:p:833-855.

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2025Measuring Long-Run Expectations that Correlate with Investment Decisions. (2025). Sun, Chen ; Weinhardt, Felix ; Haan, Peter ; Weizscker, Georg. In: Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin. RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2130.

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2025The inflationary impact of oil price shock in Korea: The role of inflation expectations. (2025). Kim, Young Min ; Lee, Seojin. In: Journal of Asian Economics. RePEc:eee:asieco:v:96:y:2025:i:c:s1049007824001568.

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2024Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle. (2024). faff, robert ; Baruník, Jozef ; Bevilacqua, Mattia. In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:159:y:2024:i:c:s0165188923001999.

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2025Trend-cycle decomposition in the presence of large shocks. (2025). Wong, Benjamin ; Morley, James ; Kamber, Gne. In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:173:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925000326.

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2024Trends and cycles during the COVID-19 pandemic period. (2024). Maria, José ; Júlio, Paulo ; Julio, Paulo. In: Economic Modelling. RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:139:y:2024:i:c:s0264999324001871.

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2024Reassessing the inversion of the Treasury yield curve as a sign of U.S. recessions: Insights from the housing and credit markets. (2024). French, Joseph ; Chatterjee, Ujjal K ; Huttinger, Maik ; Zirgulis, Aras. In: The North American Journal of Economics and Finance. RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:73:y:2024:i:c:s1062940824000986.

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2024State-dependent local projections. (2024). Kilian, Lutz ; Herrera, Ana María ; Gonalves, Slvia ; Pesavento, Elena. In: Journal of Econometrics. RePEc:eee:econom:v:244:y:2024:i:2:s0304407624000484.

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2024European business cycles and economic growth, 1300–2000. (2024). Lennard, Jason ; Broadberry, Stephen. In: Explorations in Economic History. RePEc:eee:exehis:v:94:y:2024:i:c:s001449832400038x.

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2024A thousand words tell more than just numbers: Financial crises and historical headlines. (2024). Ristolainen, Kim ; Roukka, Tomi ; Nyberg, Henri. In: Journal of Financial Stability. RePEc:eee:finsta:v:70:y:2024:i:c:s1572308923001092.

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2024Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-switching model. (2024). van Dijk, Dick ; van Os, Bram. In: International Journal of Forecasting. RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:1:p:313-323.

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2024A comparison of machine learning methods for predicting the direction of the US stock market on the basis of volatility indices. (2024). Muzzioli, Silvia ; Campisi, Giovanni ; de Baets, Bernard. In: International Journal of Forecasting. RePEc:eee:intfor:v:40:y:2024:i:3:p:869-880.

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2025Forecasting corporate bond returns amid climate change risk: A dynamic forecast combination approach. (2025). Guo, Yangli ; Luo, Qin ; Ma, Feng ; Zhong, Juandan. In: Journal of International Money and Finance. RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:154:y:2025:i:c:s0261560625000592.

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2024The forward premium anomaly and the currency carry trade hypothesis. (2024). Tzavalis, Elias ; Smyrnakis, Dimitris ; Elias, Nikolaos. In: The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:95:y:2024:i:c:p:203-218.

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2024Reading between the lines: Quantitative text analysis of banking crises. (2024). du Plessis, Emile. In: Research in Economics. RePEc:eee:reecon:v:78:y:2024:i:4:s1090944324000644.

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2024European business cycles and economic growth, 1300-2000. (2024). Lennard, Jason ; Broadberry, Stephen. In: LSE Research Online Documents on Economics. RePEc:ehl:lserod:123968.

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2025Forecasting US Recessions in Real-Time Using Regional Economic Sentiment. (2025). Mitchell, James ; Garciga, Christian. In: Economic Commentary. RePEc:fip:fedcec:102077.

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2025Recession Shapes of Regional Evolution: Factors of Hysteresis. (2025). Eo, Yunjong ; Ahn, Hie Joo. In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series. RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-62.

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2024Using an Ensemble of Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict Economic Recession. (2024). Nguyen, Nguyet ; Omolo, Leakey. In: JRFM. RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:9:p:387-:d:1469134.

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2025The Reliability of the Nominal GDP Expectations Gap. (2025). Beckworth, David ; Schibuola, Alexander D ; Martinez, Andrew B. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2025-004.

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2025Real-time Hurricane Damage Nowcasts. (2025). Martinez, Andrew. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2025-006.

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2025Can Text-Based Statistical Models Reveal Impending Banking Crises?. (2025). du Plessis, Emile. In: Computational Economics. RePEc:kap:compec:v:65:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10614-024-10594-5.

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2024To Dip or Not to Dip? A Comment on Kyer and Maggs (2019). (2024). Findlay, David W. In: International Advances in Economic Research. RePEc:kap:iaecre:v:30:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s11294-024-09889-y.

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2024Do Central Bank Communications Influence Survey of Professional Forecasters? An Empirical Investigation. (2024). Kar, Sujata ; Kapoor, Pooja. In: Business Perspectives and Research. RePEc:sae:busper:v:12:y:2024:i:1:p:100-112.

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2024Using household-level data to guide borrower-based macro-prudential policy. (2024). Ziegelmeyer, Michael ; Giordana, Gastón. In: Empirical Economics. RePEc:spr:empeco:v:66:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-023-02477-9.

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2024Government spending, multipliers, and public debt sustainability: an empirical assessment for OECD countries. (2024). Deleidi, Matteo ; Capriati, Michele ; Ciaffi, Giovanna. In: Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics. RePEc:spr:epolit:v:41:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s40888-024-00335-0.

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2024Uncertainty about interest rates and crude oil prices. (2024). Cohen, Gil ; Qadan, Mahmoud. In: Financial Innovation. RePEc:spr:fininn:v:10:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-023-00551-w.

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2024Financial ambiguity and oil prices. (2024). Qadan, Mahmoud ; Ayoub, Mahmoud. In: Financial Innovation. RePEc:spr:fininn:v:10:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-024-00656-w.

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2024An Analysis of UK Households’ Directional Forecasts of Interest Rates. (2024). Österholm, Pär ; Kladvko, Kamil. In: Journal of Business Cycle Research. RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:20:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s41549-024-00103-w.

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2024Firm Size and Public Investment Multipliers : Micro Evidence from Peru. (2024). Sampi, James ; Araujo, J T ; Vuletin, Guillermo Javier. In: Policy Research Working Paper Series. RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10997.

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2024Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data. (2024). Martin, Stephen Snudden. In: LCERPA Working Papers. RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:jc0148.

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2024Real‐time weakness of the global economy. (2024). Rots, Eyno ; Perez Quiros, Gabriel ; Leivaleon, Danilo. In: Journal of Applied Econometrics. RePEc:wly:japmet:v:39:y:2024:i:5:p:813-832.

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2024Downturns and changes in the yield slope. (2024). Trani, Tommaso ; Equiza-Goñi, Juan ; Abbritti, Mirko ; Moreno, Antonio. In: Journal of Forecasting. RePEc:wly:jforec:v:43:y:2024:i:3:p:673-701.

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2025Fundamentals Models Versus Random Walk: Evidence From an Emerging Economy. (2025). de Mendonça, Helder ; Vereda, Luciano ; Matos, Luan Mateus ; de Mendona, Helder Ferreira. In: Journal of Forecasting. RePEc:wly:jforec:v:44:y:2025:i:6:p:1884-1906.

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2024Market‐wide overconfidence and stock returns. (2024). Han, YU ; Huang, Ying ; Chen, Qiang. In: Journal of Futures Markets. RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:44:y:2024:i:1:p:3-26.

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2024Enhancing forecast accuracy through frequencydomain combination: Applications to financial and economic indicators. (2024). Verona, Fabio ; Faria, Gonçalo. In: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers. RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:307140.

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2024Forecasting recessions in Germany with machine learning. (2024). Rademacher, Philip. In: DICE Discussion Papers. RePEc:zbw:dicedp:303050.

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Works by Travis John Berge:

YearTitleTypeCited
2011Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions In: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		article223
2020When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases In: Cambridge Working Papers in Economics.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper11
2021When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases.(2021) In: European Economic Review.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 11		article
2021When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases.(2021) In: LSE Research Online Documents on Economics.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 11		paper
2020When is the Fiscal Multiplier High? A Comparison of Four Business Cycle Phases.(2020) In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 11		paper
2010A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding In: Working Papers.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper7
2010A chronology of international business cycles through non-parametric decoding.(2010) In: Research Working Paper.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 7		paper
2009The Classification of Economic Activity into Expansions and Recessions In: Working Papers.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper0
2018Understanding survey-based inflation expectations In: International Journal of Forecasting.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		article25
2017Understanding Survey Based Inflation Expectations.(2017) In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 25		paper
2019Evaluating the conditionality of judgmental forecasts In: International Journal of Forecasting.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		article5
2019Evaluating the Conditionality of Judgmental Forecasts.(2019) In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 5		paper
2010Future recession risks In: FRBSF Economic Letter.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		article1
2011Future recession risks: an update In: FRBSF Economic Letter.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		article1
2025Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy In: Working Paper Series.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper0
2025Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy.(2025) In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 0		paper
2011A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain 1850-2011 In: Working Paper Series.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper13
2011A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850-2011.(2011) In: Research Working Paper.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 13		paper
2013A chronology of turning points in economic activity: Spain, 1850–2011.(2013) In: SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 13		article
2019Duration Dependence, Monetary Policy Asymmetries, and the Business Cycle In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper1
2020Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why? In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper6
2021Time-varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s Output Gap Estimate In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper1
2023Time-Varying Uncertainty of the Federal Reserves Output Gap Estimate.(2023) In: The Review of Economics and Statistics.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 1		article
2016Which Market Indicators Best Forecast Recessions? In: FEDS Notes.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper1
2025Underlying Inflation: An Ensemble Averaging Approach In: FEDS Notes.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper0
2014Global effects of U.S. monetary policy: is unconventional policy different? In: Economic Review.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		article10
2012Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles? In: Economic Review.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		article11
2012Has globalization increased the synchronicity of international business cycles?.(2012) In: MPRA Paper.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 11		paper
2014The global impact of U.S. monetary policy In: Macro Bulletin.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		article1
2011Forecasting disconnected exchange rates In: Research Working Paper.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper16
2014FORECASTING DISCONNECTED EXCHANGE RATES.(2014) In: Journal of Applied Econometrics.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 16		article
2013Predicting recessions with leading indicators: model averaging and selection over the business cycle In: Research Working Paper.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		paper52
2015Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle.(2015) In: Journal of Forecasting.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 52		article
2010Currency Carry Trades In: NBER Chapters.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		chapter13
2010Currency Carry Trades.(2010) In: NBER Working Papers.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 13		paper
2011Currency Carry Trades.(2011) In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]
This paper has nother version. Agregated cites: 13		article
2024The stability and economic relevance of output gap estimates In: Journal of Applied Econometrics.
[Full Text][Citation analysis]		article2

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