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Working Papers / The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting

Citation Profile [Updated: 2022-01-09 21:43:50]
5 Years H
6
Impact Factor
0.8
5 Years IF
0.44
Data available in this report

[Raw data] [50 most cited papers] [50 most relevant papers] [cites used to compute IF] [Recent citations ][Frequent citing series ] [more data in EconPapers] [trace new citations] [Missing citations? Add them now] [Incorrect content? Let us know]

Main indicators
Raw Data

 

IF AIF CIF IF5 DOC CDO CIT NCI CCU D2Y C2Y D5Y C5Y SC %SC CiY II AII
1990 0 0.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.07
1991 0 0.11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.06
1992 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.07
1993 0 0.13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.07
1994 0 0.13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.06
1995 0 0.18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.09
1996 0 0.21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.12
1997 0 0.23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.13
1998 0 0.24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.15
1999 0 0.32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.21
2000 0 0.44 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2
2001 0 0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.22
2002 0 0.42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.23
2003 0 0.42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.24
2004 0 0.47 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.27
2005 0 0.49 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.29
2006 0 0.47 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.27
2007 0 0.39 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.22
2008 0 0.46 0.2 0 9 10 11 3 1 1 1 0 0 0.23
2009 0.1 0.43 0.07 0.1 4 14 4 1 4 10 1 10 1 0 0 0.22
2010 0.23 0.37 0.31 0.21 2 16 47 3 9 13 3 14 3 2 66.7 0 0.19
2011 0.5 0.46 0.24 0.25 9 25 25 6 15 6 3 16 4 1 16.7 2 0.22 0.25
2012 0.64 0.5 0.44 0.36 7 32 27 14 29 11 7 25 9 4 28.6 2 0.29 0.25
2013 0.19 0.5 0.16 0.16 6 38 19 6 35 16 3 31 5 0 1 0.17 0.24
2014 0.46 0.53 0.39 0.5 6 44 17 17 52 13 6 28 14 3 17.6 3 0.5 0.27
2015 0.58 0.53 0.44 0.63 6 50 6 22 74 12 7 30 19 2 9.1 1 0.17 0.27
2016 0.25 0.54 0.27 0.32 14 64 21 17 91 12 3 34 11 2 11.8 2 0.14 0.27
2017 0.3 0.54 0.57 0.44 4 68 4 36 130 20 6 39 17 5 13.9 2 0.5 0.27
2018 0.28 0.53 0.2 0.25 6 74 16 15 145 18 5 36 9 2 13.3 1 0.17 0.26
2019 0.7 0.55 0.32 0.31 4 78 5 25 170 10 7 36 11 3 12 0 0.32
2020 0.8 0.63 0.33 0.44 9 87 7 29 199 10 8 34 15 5 17.2 2 0.22 0.58
IF: Impact Factor: C2Y / D2Y
AIF: Average Impact Factor for series in RePEc in year y
CIF: Cumulative impact factor
IF5: Impact Factor: C5Y / D5Y
DOC: Number of documents published in year y
CDO: Cumulative number of documents published until year y
CIT: Number of citations to papers published in year y
NCI: Number of citations in year y
CCU: Cumulative number of citations to papers published until year y
D2Y: Number of articles published in y-1 plus y-2
C2Y: Cites in y to articles published in y-1 plus y-2
D5Y: Number of articles published in y-1 until y-5
C5Y: Cites in y to articles published in y-1 until y-5
SC: selft citations in y to articles published in y-1 plus y-2
%SC: Percentage of selft citations in y to articles published in y-1 plus y-2
CiY: Cites in year y to documents published in year y
II: Immediacy Index: CiY / Documents.
AII: Average Immediacy Index for series in RePEc in year y
50 most cited documents in this series
#YearTitleCited
1Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?. (2010). Stekler, Herman ; Sinclair, Tara ; Joutz, Fred. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2009-001.

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48
22012A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS. (2012). Stekler, Herman ; Sinclair, Tara ; Carnow, Warren. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2012-004.

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18
32018Identification of the Linear Factor Model. (2018). Williams, Benjamin. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2018-002.

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15
42014INFORMATION RIGIDITIES: COMPARING AVERAGE AND INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS FOR A LARGE INTERNATIONAL PANEL. (2014). Tamirisa, Natalia ; Loungani, Prakash ; Fritsche, Ulrich ; Dovern, Jonas. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2014-001.

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8
52011Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt. (2011). Martinez, Andrew. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2011-002.

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7
62016Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press. (2016). Stekler, Herman ; Mathy, Gabriel. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-011.

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7
72013Benchmarking time series based forecasting models for electricity balancing market prices. (2013). Fleten, Stein-Erik ; Eriksrud, Anders Lund ; Stein- Erik Fleten, ; Klaeboe, Gro . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2013-006.

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6
82008What Do We Know About G-7 Macro Forecasts?. (2008). Stekler, Herman. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2008-009.

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5
92017How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?. (2017). Ericsson, Neil. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2017-001.

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5
102008Exponential smoothing and non-negative data. (2008). Ord, Keith ; Hyndman, Rob ; Akram, Muhammad. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2008-003.

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5
112014EVALUATING FORECASTS OF A VECTOR OF VARIABLES: A GERMAN FORECASTING COMPETITION. (2014). Stekler, Herman ; Sinclair, Tara ; Muller-Droge, Hans Christian . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2014-004.

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5
122012Evaluating a Global Vector Autoregression for Forecasting. (2012). Ericsson, Neil ; Reisman, Erica L.. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2012-006.

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5
132013Inflation Persistence: Revisited. (2013). Smith, Julie ; Gamber, Edward N. ; Liebner, Jeffrey P.. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2013-002.

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4
142016Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?. (2016). Sinclair, Tara ; Tien, Pao-Lin ; Gamber, Edward N. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-007.

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4
152011Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates. (2011). Stekler, Herman ; Sinclair, Tara. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2011-001.

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4
162011Jointly Evaluating the Federal Reserve’s Forecasts of GDP Growth and Inflation. (2011). Stekler, Herman ; Sinclair, Tara ; Gamber, Edward N. ; Reid, Elizabeth . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2008-002.

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4
172011Evaluating Alternative Methods of Forecasting House Prices: A Post-Crisis Reassessment. (2011). Larson, William. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2010-004.

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4
182013Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests. (2013). Sheng, Xuguang ; Yang, Jingyun . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2013-004.

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4
192009Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game. (2009). Stekler, Herman ; Boulier, Bryan ; Rankins, Timothy ; Coburn, Jason . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2009-003.

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3
202013Does disagreement among oil price forecasters reflect future volatility? Evidence from the ECB Surveys. (2013). Pierru, Axel ; Joutz, Fred ; Atallah, Tarek . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2013-001.

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3
212020The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations. (2020). Meyer, Brent ; Sheng, Xuguang Simon ; Prescott, Brian. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2020-006.

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3
222011A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach. (2011). Jia, Yueqing. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2011-006.

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3
232019A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts. (2019). Sinclair, Tara ; Stekler, Herman O ; Jones, Jacob T. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2018-005.

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3
242020Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19. (2020). Sinclair, Tara ; Larson, William D. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2020-004.

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3
252011Economic Forecasting in the Great Recession. (2011). Stekler, Herman ; Talwar, Raj M.. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2011-005.

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3
262012Has the Accuracy of German Macroeconomic Forecasts Improved?. (2012). Stekler, Herman ; Heilemann, Ullrich. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2010-001.

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3
272015Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates. (2015). Larson, William. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2015-002.

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2
282016Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling. (2016). Doerner, William ; Larson, William D ; Bogin, Alexander N. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-010.

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2
292012Modelling and Forecasting Residential Electricity Consumption in the U.S. Mountain Region. (2012). Jorgensen, Jason ; Joutz, Fred. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2012-003.

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2
302020Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts. (2020). Hendry, David ; Castle, Jennifer L ; Martinez, Andrew B. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2020-009.

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2
312014QUASI MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC PANEL DATA MODELS FOR SHORT TIME SERIES. (2014). Phillips, Robert. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2014-006.

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2
322012EVALUATING A VECTOR OF THE FED’S FORECASTS. (2012). Stekler, Herman ; Sinclair, Tara ; Carnow, Warren. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2012-002.

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2
332019Sectoral Okun’s Law and Cross-Country Cyclical Differences. (2019). Bürgi, Constantin ; Bürgi, Constantin ; Bürgi, Constantin ; Burgi, Constantin ; Goto, Eiji . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2019-002.

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2
342015Robustness of Forecast Combination in Unstable Environment: A Monte Carlo Study of Advanced Algorithms. (2015). Zhao, Yongchen. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2015-005.

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2
352016What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?. (2016). Bürgi, Constantin ; Bürgi, Constantin ; Bürgi, Constantin ; Burgi, Constantin . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-013.

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2
362013Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption in International Football. (2013). Reade, J ; Akie, Sachiko . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2013-005.

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2
372015Predicting Recessions With Boosted Regression Trees. (2015). Pierdzioch, Christian ; Fritsche, Ulrich ; Döpke, Jörg ; Dopke, Jorg. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2015-004.

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2
382
392016COULD THE START OF THE GERMAN RECESSION 2008-2009 HAVE BEEN FORESEEN? EVIDENCE FROM REAL-TIME DATA. (2016). Heilemann, Ulrich ; Schnorr-Backer, Susanne . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-003.

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2
402014COMMENTS ON DOVERN, FRITSCHE, LOUNGANI AND TAMIRISA (FORTHCOMING). (2014). Coibion, Olivier. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2014-002.

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2
412016Using Social Media to Identify Market Ine!ciencies: Evidence from Twitter and Betfair. (2016). Rossi, Giambattista ; Reade, J ; Rambaccussing, Dooruj ; Brown, Alasdair. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-002.

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2
422018French Nowcasts of the US Economy during the Great Recession: A Textual Analysis. (2018). Catalfamo, Emma. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2018-001.

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2
432013Information Environment and The Cost of Capital. (2013). Thevenot, Maya ; Sheng, Xuguang ; Barron, Orie . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2013-003.

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1
442008Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s?. (2008). Smith, Julie ; Gamber, Edward N.. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2007-002.

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1
452019Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting. (2019). Sinclair, Tara. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2019-003.

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1
462016Forecasting the USD/CNY Exchange Rate under Different Policy Regimes. (2016). Huang, Yuxuan . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-001.

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1
472009Issues in Sports Forecasting. (2009). Stekler, Herman ; Sendor, David ; Verlander, Richard . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2009-002.

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1
482016Liquidity effects on consumers’ imports in Trinidad and Tobago. (2016). Browne, Michael. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-005.

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1
492016Economic Forecasting in Theory and Practice: An Interview with David F. Hendry. (2016). Ericsson, Neil. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-012.

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1
502014WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS?. (2014). Stekler, Herman ; Sinclair, Tara ; Messina, Jeff . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2014-003.

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1
50 most relevant documents in this series (papers most cited in the last two years)
#YearTitleCited
12010Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?. (2010). Stekler, Herman ; Sinclair, Tara ; Joutz, Fred. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2009-001.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

12
22018Identification of the Linear Factor Model. (2018). Williams, Benjamin. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2018-002.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

11
32012A NEW APPROACH FOR EVALUATING ECONOMIC FORECASTS. (2012). Stekler, Herman ; Sinclair, Tara ; Carnow, Warren. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2012-004.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

6
42020Nowcasting Unemployment Insurance Claims in the Time of COVID-19. (2020). Sinclair, Tara ; Larson, William D. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2020-004.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

3
52016Expectations and Forecasting during the Great Depression: Real-Time Evidence from the Business Press. (2016). Stekler, Herman ; Mathy, Gabriel. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-011.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

3
62020The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations. (2020). Meyer, Brent ; Sheng, Xuguang Simon ; Prescott, Brian. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2020-006.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

3
72019A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts. (2019). Sinclair, Tara ; Stekler, Herman O ; Jones, Jacob T. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2018-005.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

3
82017How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?. (2017). Ericsson, Neil. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2017-001.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

3
92013Truncated Product Methods for Panel Unit Root Tests. (2013). Sheng, Xuguang ; Yang, Jingyun . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2013-004.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

3
102016What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?. (2016). Bürgi, Constantin ; Bürgi, Constantin ; Bürgi, Constantin ; Burgi, Constantin . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-013.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

2
112011A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach. (2011). Jia, Yueqing. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2011-006.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

2
122020Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts. (2020). Hendry, David ; Castle, Jennifer L ; Martinez, Andrew B. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2020-009.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

2
132015Forecasting an Aggregate in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Disaggregates. (2015). Larson, William. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2015-002.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

2
142019Sectoral Okun’s Law and Cross-Country Cyclical Differences. (2019). Bürgi, Constantin ; Bürgi, Constantin ; Bürgi, Constantin ; Burgi, Constantin ; Goto, Eiji . In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2019-002.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

2
152018French Nowcasts of the US Economy during the Great Recession: A Textual Analysis. (2018). Catalfamo, Emma. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2018-001.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

2
162016Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling. (2016). Doerner, William ; Larson, William D ; Bogin, Alexander N. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-010.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

2
Citing documents used to compute impact factor: 8
YearTitle
2020Does the Current State of the Business Cycle matter for Real-Time Forecasting? A Mixed-Frequency Threshold VAR approach.. (2020). Heinrich, Markus. In: EconStor Preprints. RePEc:zbw:esprep:219312.

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2020A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts. (2020). Sinclair, Tara ; Stekler, Herman O ; Jones, Jacob T. In: International Journal of Forecasting. RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:4:p:1478-1487.

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2020The narrative about the economy as a shadow forecast: an analysis using Banco de España quarterly reports. (2020). Urtasun, Alberto ; Pérez, Javier ; Ghirelli, Corinna ; Perez, Javier J ; Hurtado, Samuel ; Sobrino, Nelida Diaz. In: Working Papers. RePEc:bde:wpaper:2042.

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2020The Economic Value of Breaking Bad: Misbehavior, Schooling and the Labor Market. (2020). Ronda, Victor ; Papageorge, Nicholas ; Zheng, YU. In: Economics Working Paper Archive. RePEc:jhu:papers:64574.

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2020The Power of Narratives in Economic Forecasts. (2020). Sharpe, Steven ; Sinha, Nitish R ; Hollrah, Christopher A. In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series. RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-01.

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2020Forecasting with news sentiment: Evidence with UK newspapers. (2020). Rambaccussing, Dooruj ; Kwiatkowski, Andrzej. In: International Journal of Forecasting. RePEc:eee:intfor:v:36:y:2020:i:4:p:1501-1516.

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2020Economic Growth and Unemployment Nexus: Okun’s Two-Version Case for Nigeria, South Africa and United States of America. (2020). Victor, Adedotun Seyingbo ; Onakoya, Adegbemi Babatunde. In: Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies. RePEc:rnd:arjebs:v:12:y:2020:i:1:p:55-65.

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2020Social Distancing and the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the United States. (2020). Bürgi, Constantin ; Bürgi, Constantin ; Bürgi, Constantin ; Gorgulu, Nisan. In: CESifo Working Paper Series. RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8577.

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Recent citations
Recent citations received in 2020
YearCiting document
2020The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market. (2020). Thorbecke, Willem. In: Journal of Risk and Financial Management. RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:10:p:233-:d:422459.

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2020Extracting Information from Different Expectations. (2020). Martinez, Andrew. In: Working Papers. RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2020-008.

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Recent citations received in 2019
YearCiting document

Recent citations received in 2018
YearCiting document
2018IDENTIFICATION OF JOINT DISTRIBUTIONS IN DEPENDENT FACTOR MODELS. (2018). Ben-Moshe, Dan. In: Econometric Theory. RePEc:cup:etheor:v:34:y:2018:i:01:p:134-165_00.

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Recent citations received in 2017
YearCiting document
2017Interpreting estimates of forecast bias. (2017). Ericsson, Neil. In: International Journal of Forecasting. RePEc:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:2:p:563-568.

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2017How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?. (2017). Ericsson, Neil. In: International Finance Discussion Papers. RePEc:fip:fedgif:1189.

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